The Economy

There is an Upside to Lower Home Prices

Normally people accept the idea that lower home prices are bad because people who already own homes may have lost value in their home. However, there is an upside to lower prices. The upside is that more people can afford to by homes or can buy homes that are nicer or better located.

A recent report on the affordability of homes in California was released and shows that more people can now afford to buy a home. Affordability has to do with the price of homes available and the interest rates that people can get on home loans. We are now at the record level for affordability that was seen in 2009.

Existing home owners should also be happy that affordability is up, because it means that more people can afford to buy. Hopefully this will lead to fewer properties on the market and fewer vacant units. More people in homes means better neighborhoods. So, in the long-run the current low prices will rebound and more homes will be occupied.

Home inventory levels are low

Record low interest rates mean that it is a great time to get a loan. However, the other factor that comes into play when deciding to buy or invest in a home is the price level of homes. As we all know, home prices have come down dramatically in nearly every market. This is in part due to the high number of properties available for sale and the, relatively, low number or buyers.

There may be a change on the horizon. While most people do not expect home prices to shoot up any time soon, there may be more stability and possibly some minor increases in prices. This is a result of the lower levels of available homes. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal stated that inventory levels dropped by an average of 22% nationwide. Of course the amount of change in the housing inventory varies depending on the city and state, but the trend is fairly evident. If this trend continues, it should be expected that prices would increase, even if it may be slightly.

Maybe we are on the road to recovery???

Interest rates are ridiculously low

The average 30 year fixed rate for January 19th, 2012 is 3.88%. According to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), published by Freddie Mac this is the lowest since the inception of the survey in 1971.

To gain an understanding of what this low interest rate means, you have to think about what it translates into based upon a particular loan amount. To keep things simple, I will use a loan amount of $100,000 for this example. At a fixed interest rate of 3.88% on a 30 year loan, the payment is $471 per month.

If you compare this to the 7.00% interest rate in January of 2002 (10 years ago) you would have had a payment of $665 per month for a $100,000 loan.

Going back even further, to January 1982, the interest rate was 17.48% which translates to $1,465 per month for a $100,000 loan.

These super low interest rates and the huge drop in home prices makes right now a great time to buy. In many cases, rental costs are higher than the cost to own.

The payroll tax cut hurts some of the least well off people

In order to continue the payroll tax cut there is going to be an increase in the fees charged to borrowers using Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae guaranteed loans. While the payroll tax cut is a good thing for people who rely on every penny to survive, the way congress and the president decided to pay for it is to increase housing costs to people who are trying to buy homes using low down-payments.

Here’s how it works. The guarantee fee, kind of insurance, on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae loans will increase by 10 basis points (0.1%). This will translate to about $10 – $15 per month on a $200,000 loan. While this is not a tremendous amount of money, it does add up. Most people using these types of government loans already have limited funds for monthly payments and down-payments. That is why they are using the government backed loan. It seems silly to cut the payroll tax and then increase fees on the same group of people.

The increase is due to take place April 1st, 2012 and that’s no April fool’s joke. Take a moment to tell your representatives to find a different way to fund the payroll tax cut. The only way to get the economy back on track is to get housing back on track. Hurting first-time buyers is not the way to do it.

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